2016 Fantasy Football Analysis

A first round fantasy draft pick, getting injured is improbable, but with only 4 fantasy points to his name in two games, Adrian Peterson has been the biggest disappointment this season.  Injuries will be the biggest factor in your fantasy football downfall.  Another player with a season-ending injury already is Keenan Allen, a wide receiver for the Chargers, who had high expectations coming into this season.  On the other hand, if you are not plagued by injuries, sitting at 3-0 gives you a great shot at the playoffs, even if you lose your momentum.  That being said, a 0-3 team could have a rebirth and flourish later on in the season, which is better than starting out well.

Two years ago, my team reached a low of 3-8 after week 11.  Things were looking very dismal with some key players getting injured.  But, I still knew there was a very slim chance, so I went for it.  After my team won handily in week 12, I could still make the playoffs, but I realized my team’s fate was not 100% in my own hands.  I needed losses from two different teams as well as a win on my part.  I could only pray.  Luckily, throughout the season I had been putting up big numbers, but was unable to get the job done.  Everything went my way that Sunday, and I narrowly clinched the last playoff berth by winning the tiebreaker with most points for.  My team continued its’ success throughout the playoffs, and I relatively easily won the championship, compiling a measly record of 8-8.  This improbable outcome of my season proves that anything is possible.

Two top players are returning to the field in the next two weeks: Tom Brady and Le’Veon Bell.  Each player could make a big impact on your fantasy team, but there still is a chance that they may get another suspension/injury.  Unfortunately, for those who picked Josh Gordon and expected him back next week, he announced he is going into rehab, on September 29, so he will probably not return for the rest of the season.

Two of the biggest surprises this year are the number one fantasy quarterback and wide receiver currently, Matt Ryan and Marvin Jones.  In a pass happy era, with quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Tom Brady, no one would expect to see Matty Ice as the leader.  If you currently own him or Marvin Jones, I highly recommend trading him to fill the gaps in your lineup because their upcoming schedule is extremely tough.  Playing Seattle and Denver in the next two weeks, Ryan is sure to see his production slow down.  On the receiving side, Marvin Jones leads the pack after his monster 200 yard and 2 touchdown game.  This single game is the reason he is on top of the rankings, which means that he will not be able to continue to put up monstrous numbers.  Jones is the number one wide out on the Lions with Calvin Johnson in retirement.  And, after Ameer Abdullah’s season-ending injury, he will see even more targets putting him at a solid 1/2 wide receiver.

While there are these shocks, there are also some congruences with predictions.  Including David Johnson and Greg Olsen leading their position in fantasy points.  Seeing these players at the top are expected and they will probably stay there for the remainder of the season.

If you are a part of a PPR (points per reception) league, I suggest that your lineup has three wide receivers and two running backs.  Preferably have a pass catching running back as your RB2, and at least one or two slot receivers, so you can take advantage of getting one point for every reception.  Finally, my last piece of advice is to scour the waiver wire.  When the starting running back for a team is injured, immediately try to pick up the second string back or a wide receiver for that team.  Especially, if your team is weak in a specific area make sure to check the free agent list for favorable matchups.  This will be the key to late season success and in the playoffs where every game counts.

10/2/16

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